While Veridian trades 50+ crypto assets simultaneously, the majority of altcoins move in tandem with Bitcoin. Understanding where BTC sits in its macro cycle is essential context for the entire crypto market.
Below, we visualize three independent quantitative models — each measuring a different dimension of Bitcoin's structural cycle. Together, they answer three questions: Where are we in the cycle?, How expensive is Bitcoin right now?, and Which direction is momentum pointing?
What this model shows: Bitcoin's price follows a power law with its age — this alone explains about 97% of log-price variance since 2009. But the deviations from this trend aren't random. They oscillate in a surprisingly regular pattern.
The key insight: The dominant cycle has a period of log₂(2) ≈ 0.301, which means BTC tends to peak roughly when its age doubles. Not every 4 years (as the halving narrative suggests) — every time its age doubles, which gets longer over time. The first peak was ~2 years after genesis, the next ~4, the next ~8, and so on.
The oscillator (bottom chart): Shows where we are in the cycle. When it's rising from below zero, we're in accumulation — historically the best time to build positions. When it peaks above zero, we're in distribution territory. The model doesn't predict exact prices — it identifies structural timing.
How to read the projection: The dashed lines extend the model forward to ~2036. These show the structural rhythm, not price targets. The yellow composite line is the model's central estimate; the teal band shows the typical range of deviation.
What this model shows: Bitcoin's fair value grows along a power law — a mathematical relationship between price and age. This model measures how far the current price has deviated from that fair value, expressed as a 0–100% risk scale.
The green zone (below 20%): Historically the best accumulation territory. Bitcoin has only spent brief periods here — typically near cycle bottoms after major crashes. Every time it has entered this zone, it has eventually recovered to fair value and beyond.
The red zone (above 85%): Historically where major cycle tops occur. This doesn't mean price drops immediately — blow-off tops can extend for weeks — but the risk-reward becomes increasingly unfavorable.
The floor line: Based on the deepest deviation ever recorded (post-2011). Bitcoin has never closed below this level on a daily basis. It represents the structural minimum the power law model implies.
What this model shows: The Sortino ratio measures returns relative to downside risk only. Unlike the more common Sharpe ratio, it doesn't penalize upside volatility — only the painful kind. This makes it a better fit for an asymmetric asset like Bitcoin.
How to read it: The bar chart shows a rolling 365-day Sortino. Green bars mean Bitcoin's returns over the past year have been strong relative to downside risk. Red bars mean the opposite — more pain than gain.
Above 2.0 = strong momentum. Historically, sustained Sortino readings above 2.0 have coincided with the strongest phases of bull markets. This doesn't guarantee continuation, but it confirms the trend has "energy" behind it.
Below -1.0 = deep weakness. Extended periods of negative Sortino have historically marked the worst of bear markets — but also the setups for the next major rally. By the time Sortino turns positive from deeply negative territory, the recovery is often well underway.
Disclaimer: This page presents visualizations of publicly available quantitative research. It does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Past performance of any model is not indicative of future results. All models have limitations and should not be used as the sole basis for trading decisions. Full Terms & Risk Disclosure